Fuji-Keizai Co., Ltd. disclosed an outline of a 2008 FC market research report in Japan.
Time schedules to commercialize various technology development results were presented from the industries over 2007 to 2008.
In this circumstance, the following five fuel cell systems were searched.
1) Fuel cell systems for business and industry
2) Residential fuel cell systems
3) Fuel cell systems for vehicles
4) Micro fuel cells
5) Portable fuel cells
6) New type fuel cells (middle-temperature fuel cells, bio fuel cells and anion fuel cells)
The search was also made on fuel cell components, accessories, and evaluation/analysis systems.
I. Outline of Market Research
Most attention is paid to the commercialization of the residential fuel cell systems (2009) and the micro fuel cells (2009).
In the market, there are many strong products competing against the fuel cell products. This will impede the growth of the fuel cell market.
It is forecast that the overall fuel cell market scale will be 1,206,900,000,000 yen in 2020.
Fuel Cell System Market
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II. Market Trends of Fuel Cell Applications
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(1) Fuel Cell Systems for Business and Industry
2020 market scale (forecast): 286 Oku-yen and 43.7 times (of 2007 market scale)
At present, PAFC has the lead on the rest of the fuel cells in the developing race.
In future, PEFC and SOFC will be widely used for small-scale business applications.
The fuel cell systems of 10 kW to several tens kW, including the PEFC based systems, have already been commercialized. This class of the fuel cell systems is applied mainly to the small-scale business.
The SOFC systems have been developed to such levels as to allow them to be subjected to demonstration tests.
In the high power fuel cell systems of over 100 kW, PAFC and MCFC are in advance of the remaining fuel cells in commercialization.
It is expected that this class of the fuel cell systems will be installed at public facilities and the like.
Much time is frequently taken for the buying procedures in those facilities.
By this cause, the number of the fuel cells having been delivered to those organizations does not reach that as expected by the manufacturers.
With the regard to PAFC, many technical problems involved in the fuel cell have been solved, but it remains at high price levels. This hinders the spread of PAFCs.
Fuji Electric Holdings Co. Ltd. has a plan to sell 50 PAFC systems in 2010 and 200 PAFC systems in 2020.
(2) Residential Fuel Cell Systems
2020 market scale: 2,575 Oku-yen and 77.3 times
PEFC
The large-scale demonstration test of the residential fuel cell systems has been conducted. As the result of the demonstration test, the number of delivered products of this type of fuel cells is considerably large when compared with that of each remaining type.
It has been determined to put the residential fuel cell systems on the market from 2009.
How to start the sales of the residential fuel cell systems is now discussed by the manufacturers, the energy enterprises and the government.
To increase the technical levels, the fuel cell systems are upgraded every three years, and the full-scale spread of the use of the residential fuel cells will be launched in 2027.
The large-scale demonstration test project has played a great part in the study of commercialization of the residential fuel cell system.
The demonstration test project started in 2005. The number of the residential fuel cell systems that participated the project was 480. In this year it will be 1,120.
SOFC
The demonstration study on the residential SOFC cogeneration systems has been launched in 2007. The demonstration study will be switched to a large-scale demonstration test in 2011.
(3) Fuel cell systems for vehicles
2020 market scale: 9,000 Oku-yen and 1,800 times
Fuel Cell Commercialization Conference of Japan (FCCJ) presented “Development Scenario of Fuel Cell Vehicle and Hydrogen Station toward 2015″ in March this year. The Scenario was made to encourage the FCV developing makers for the spread of FCVs.
The technology development by NEDO, cost reduction estimation by automakers, infrastructure development, base building strategy and others will unanimously start toward 2015.
At the present stage, the automakers consider that what the makers have to do is to increase the number of FCVs and as well to make effort of commercializing FCVs.
The minister-certified FCVs were switched to the type certified FCVs (2005 type) over 2005 to 2006. The leased FCVs were replaced with new ones during this period.
Following this, the automakers come out with new types of FCVs.
Those new-type FCVs were exhibited in Hokkaido Toyako Summit, providing good news on fuel cell development.
The automobile industry is expressing great interest in environment protection and energy security.
The automakers recognize the FCV as the result from one of the ultimate technologies, and tackle with the development of the energy-saving technology for automobiles on the basis of the oil peak theory that the oil peak appears in around 2030.
(4) Micro Fuel Cells
2020 market scale: 145 Oku-yen and 14,500 times
Micro Fuel Cell (FC) is a fuel cell of the output power ranging from 100 mW to several tens watts. The micro FC comes in two variations: DMFC and PEFC. Most of the current micro FCs are DMFCs. Those micro FCs are being developed for portable devices.
The level of product completeness is satisfactorily high.
The size reduction of the micro FC has reached satisfactory levels of commodities.
For example, the micro FC is capable of driving a mobile phone continuously for one month by methanol contained in one methanol cartridge.
It is forecast that about 10,000 FC packs as the FC power sources for mobile phones will be delivered after 009, and then the micro FC market will gradually expand.
The DMFC, inter alia, will be used for most of the small products of 1 watt class.
III. Keep Your Eye On:
The following fuel cell systems will achieve sure growth toward 2020.
(1) Residential SOFC systems
(2) PEFC for vehicles
(3) DMFC for mobile phones
IV. Searched Markets
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* Oku-yen = one hundred million yen
* 1 USD = about 107 yen
About Author
* Operating a website “FuelCell japan”
*
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